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War this summer (Joel Rosenberg)

New post on Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog

WAR THIS SUMMER? Israel TV network reports “the moment of truth is near.”
by joelcrosenberg
International negotiations with Iran went nowhere on Friday. More discussions are schedule for May, though Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said this was a gift to the Iranians who will have more time to enrich uranium and accelerate their weapons development program. "My initial impression is that Iran has been given a freebie," said the PM during a meeting with U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman. "It's got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition."

No sooner had the fruitless talks ended had talk in Israel returned to the increasing imminency of war. "A major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike," reports the Times of Israel. "The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor. No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. 'But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.'....

"In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, 'dozens if not more planes' will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.....Ben-David said that if negotiations break down, and Iran moves key parts of its nuclear program underground to its Qom facility, the IAF 'is likely to get the order and to set out on the long journey to Iran....Years of preparations are likely to come to realization,” he said, adding that 'the moment of truth is near.'....The attack, the report said, would presumably trigger a war in northern Israel, with missile attacks (presumably from the Iranian-proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon). 'There will be no tranquility and peace anywhere in Israel,' Ben-David said. This could be the first full-scale war the IAF has fought in nearly 30 years, the report stated."

While a summer war is a real possibility, the Israelis will also want and need to maximize the element of surprise, meaning a strike this spring is still possible. Then again, any number of events could intervene in the near future to thwart the need for a war, or thwart the Israelis' ability to conduct an effective war with Iran. As noted several weeks ago, one of those events would be if Russian President Vladimir Putin intervened to warn Israel not to strike or risk Russian military intervention. Let us, therfore, continue to pray for peace in the epicenter, while we continue to gird ourselves and prepare for the possibility of war.
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